AERC continues to monitor inflation trends and factors in Kazakhstan, providing monthly forecasts of overall price levels.
The current review notes that inflation in November remained high on a monthly basis, matching the October level at 0.9% (m/m). Annual inflation slowed to 8.5% (y/y), but this was solely due to the high base of the previous year. Domestic factors, along with the depreciation of the tenge against the US dollar, are contributing to inflationary pressures. A mitigating factor for inflation has been the sharp tightening of monetary policy by the National Bank.
However, considering the lag effect of the interest rate on inflation and the presence of external inflationary pressures (such as the acceleration of global food inflation and rising inflation in Russia), AERC expects monthly inflation to remain high in December 2024 and January 2025, at 0.81% (m/m) and 0.77% (m/m), respectively.
For more details on the forecast for February 2025 and the annual inflation projections, refer to the attached document.
