Monthly inflation slowed from 1.1% (MoM) in September to 0.5% (MoM) in October. On an annual basis, inflation in October (eop) stood at 12.6% (YoY), 0.3 percentage points lower than in September.
External factors remain broadly disinflationary, while domestic conditions continue to be shaped by the expansion of the money supply. AERC expects inflation to reach 0.66% (MoM) or 12.32% (YoY) in November. In December 2025 and January 2026, annual inflation is expected to slow down to 12.04% (YoY) and 11.55% (YoY), respectively.
One-year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 13.2% in September to 13.6% in October. The dispersion of household responses also continues to widen.
Although 12-month-ahead inflation expectations declined from 13.6% in August to 13.2% in September, they remain significantly above the actual inflation rate. Five-year inflation expectations stood at 14.0%, remaining above short-term expectations. Meanwhile, expectations among professional market participants continued to rise.
By mid-November, the tenge had strengthened by 4.2% against the US dollar compared with early October. The RUB/KZT pair continued to trade within a narrow horizontal corridor, fluctuating within ±2%. In October, FX market turnover increased by 15.4% m/m, while the share of FX sales by the National Bank and quasi-sovereign entities rose from 27.2% to 30.3%.
As of 1 October 2025, international reserves amounted to USD 57.4 billion, an increase of 5.7% over the month. Meanwhile, gold continues to strengthen its position as the largest reserve asset.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
