Monthly inflation accelerated from 1.0% MoM in August to 1.1% MoM in September. In annual terms, consumer prices increased by 12.9% YoY, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to August.
External and domestic inflationary pressures are developing inconsistently. AERC expects inflation in October to reach 0.93% MoM, equivalent to 12.89% YoY. Some moderation in annual inflation is still anticipated in the coming months, with projections of 12.84% YoY for November and 12.74% YoY for December.
Although 12-month-ahead inflation expectations declined from 13.6% in August to 13.2% in September, they remain significantly above the actual inflation rate. Five-year inflation expectations stood at 14.0%, remaining above short-term expectations. Meanwhile, expectations among professional market participants continued to rise.
By the end of September, the tenge depreciated against the US dollar by 1.9% compared to the beginning of the month. However, by mid-October, the tenge had recovered to August levels against both the US dollar and the Russian ruble, supported by the policy rate hike. In September, FX market turnover rose by 13.0% MoM, while the share of foreign currency sales by the National Bank and quasi-public companies declined from 28.8% to 27.2%.
As of September 1, 2025, international reserves amounted to USD 54.3 billion, up by 4.2% MoM. Gold remains the largest reserve asset (USD 34.7 billion), with its value rising by 5.6% MoM due to a 2.5% increase in physical holdings.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
