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Economic activity continued to accelerate. In January – April 2026, the Short-Term Economic Indicator rose to 104.2% (YoY) after 102.5% (YoY) in January – March. The main contribution to growth came from construction, trade, transport and warehousing, as well as manufacturing. At the same time, the structure of growth remains uneven and differs across certain types of economic activity.
In April 2026, oil production volumes recovered to the levels observed before the January disruptions. However, in January – April, production remained below the level recorded in the same period of the previous year, weighing on the annual growth rates of the mining industry and freight turnover. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan continues to exceed the quotas set for the country under the OPEC+ agreement.
Fixed capital investment increased by 6.7% (YoY). Enterprises’ own funds remain the main source of financing, while the contribution of budget funds, which dominated in the first half of 2025, remains negative. At the same time, there are signs of a growing role of bank lending in financing investment.
Foreign trade turnover continues to grow, although imports are outpacing exports. In January – March 2026, foreign trade turnover increased by 10.5% (YoY). Mutual trade with Russia shows divergent dynamics: export shipments declined by 12.0% (YoY), while imports posted double-digit growth of 28.5% (YoY). The January disruptions in oil production are gradually affecting the export dynamics of the oil sector, with growth in overseas oil shipments slowing.
A serious precedent has been the delay in publishing reports on public finances of the Republic of Kazakhstan. As of June 10, reports on the execution of the republican, state and consolidated budgets for January – April 2026, data on the flow of money in the cash control account of the National Fund, as well as the statistical bulletin of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, were still unavailable. At the same time, preliminary data for January – May 2026 were published. This situation limits the scope for a comprehensive analysis of public finance dynamics.
Due to the absence of detailed reporting for January – April, this review compares budget indicators with the data for January – March 2026. Preliminary data point to a deterioration in state budget execution in January – May compared with the results for January – March 2026.
The foreign currency assets of the National Fund recovered after the decline observed in March. The decrease in asset value recorded in March amid volatility in global equity markets was almost fully offset in April. The foreign currency assets of the National Fund reached USD 64.8 billion, increasing by USD 2.4 billion, or 3.9%, over the month. The main driver of the increase was the recovery in equity prices, which account for 37% of the Fund’s savings portfolio.
Read more in the Socio-Economic Development Review.
