The real sector of the economy continues to demonstrate strong growth, though it showed signs of slowing in September. The short-term economic indicator (STEI) for January–September 2025 declined from 109.6% to 109.1%. The main drivers remain the construction sector (+14.9%) and transport and warehousing (+21.2%).
Economic activity in industry is slowing down. Concurrently, metallurgy, which constitutes 40% of the entire manufacturing industry, is experiencing stagnation. Kazakhstan continues to exceed OPEC+ quotas. In September, production amounted to 1.84 million bbl/d, despite the quota being set at 1.53 million bbl/d (according to IEA).
Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover remains below last year’s level. Although the rate of contraction in export is slowing, the overall level remains high.
The weak execution of the republican budget is primarily due to shortfalls in transfers from the National Fund. Lower than-planned revenues in the republican budget have resulted in reduced expenditures compared to the approved volumes. In the first nine months of 2025, republican budget expenditure execution stood at 93.9%.
Nevertheless, as the fiscal year comes to an end, revenues to the republican budget are gradually approaching the planned target, although at the beginning of the year execution stood at 68.5%.
Growth in fixed capital investment slowed in September. At the same time, state budget funds continue to be the primary driver of investment.
Read more in the Socio-Economic Development Review.
