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The execution of the state budget for the first two months of 2026 remains positive. Revenue targets have been surpassed in both the republican and local budgets. In both cases, these positive results are primarily driven by tax revenues, although at the local budget level, most regions remain highly dependent on transfers from the republican budget.
The foreign currency assets of the National Fund continue to increase. This growth has been driven primarily by investment income. Meanwhile, in the first three months of 2026, total inflows to the Fund (excluding investment income) equaled the amount of funds withdrawn from the National Fund. At the same time, the structure of the Fund’s assets continues to show shifts in the distribution between the foreign currency and tenge-denominated components.
In January – February 2026, economic activity demonstrated signs of recovery following a sharp decline in January. This rebound was primarily driven by the construction, trade, and mechanical engineering sectors. At the same time, a substantial decrease in oil production persists, which has adversely affected mining output and cargo turnover. However, Kazakhstan continued to exceed its OPEC+ quotas. Risks of further overproduction relative to Kazakhstan's commitments under the OPEC+ agreements are intensifying.
Fixed capital investment is stagnating. The contribution of budgetary resources, which had dominated in the first half of 2025, turned negative. Against this backdrop, the first signs are emerging of a shift in the role of bank lending.
Foreign trade turnover in the first months of 2026 shows a positive trend. Notably, Kazakhstan's exports are growing at a faster rate than its imports. The shock in oil production has not yet been reflected in export statistics.
Read more in the Socio-Economic Development Review.
